By all accounts, Kenta Maeda’s rookie season with the Los Angeles Dodgers was a massive success. In 32 starts (a team high), Maeda posted an 3.48 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and struck out more than one batter per inning. He also finished third in 2016 National League Rookie of the Year voting.
All of this after signing an eight-year contract that could net Maeda anywhere from $25 million to $106 million. The deal was heavily incentivized due to a physical revealing ‘irregularities’ in his right elbow. Heading into 2017, Maeda was one of only three starting pitchers who found themselves outside of any real ‘competition’ for a spot in the rotation.
As a result, expectations were high for the 29-year-old. In four starts this season, however, Maeda has pitched just 19 innings, posting an inflated 8.05 ERA due in part to having allowed seven home runs.
So which Maeda should the Dodgers expect over the next six to seven months? Will his ERA return to 2016 levels over the course of the season? Or has the league caught on to something that they’ll continue to exploit?
To answer these questions, let’s look at some comparisons between 2016 and 2017.
- In 2016, Maeda had a .283 BABIP. So far this season, that number is .315
- In 2016, Maeda generated ground balls 44 percent of the time. That’s dropped to 27.6 percent in 2017
- In 2016, only 11.8 percent of fly balls allowed by Maeda resulted in home runs. That’s nearly doubled to 22.6 percent
- In 2016, Maeda averaged 9.17 strikeouts per nine innings. That number is exactly 9.00 heading into Friday’s start against the Philadelphia Phillies
- In 2016, Maeda’s fastball had an average velocity of 90 mph. In 2017, it’s up a notch, at 91.3 mph
- In 2016, Maeda’s slider had an average velocity of 81.4 mph. That’s now increased to 82.9 mph
- In 2016, Maeda’s curveball had an average velocity of 72.5 mph. Now it’s at 73.5 mph
- In 2016, Maeda’s changeup had an average velocity of 82.5 mph. It’s another pitch that’s increased in velocity, now 83.4 mph
- In 2016, Maeda induced ‘soft contact’ 20 percent of the time. In 2017, he’s inducing soft contact at a 13.1 percent clip
That’s obviously a lot to digest, and quite honestly, it may very well not paint a clearer picture of Maeda’s struggles this season..
On one hand, you look at BABIP and pitch velocity, and there’s reason for some optimism. Is it just bad luck? Why would his velocity increase and his effectiveness decrease?
On the flip side, the reason for concern most clearly lies in the fact that Maeda is allowing fly balls almost 20 percent more often. And those fly balls are leaving the yard twice as often.
Obviously, the HR/FB rate isn’t sustainable and is bound to regress toward being more average. But the fact that he’s allowing more fly balls and more solid contact is definitely concerning.
The final bit of concern stems from looking at Maeda’s splits from last year. In the first half of 2016, Maeda’s ERA was 2.95. But in the second half, his ERA jumped to 4.25 (.296 BABIP).
When digging even deeper, you’ll find this: Maeda hasn’t had a start in which he shut out the opponent since May 28, 2016. He only has four such starts in his career — three of which came within his first four starts for the Dodgers.
So, what’s the verdict? Should we be buying Maeda stock while it’s low? Or is the new Kenta Maeda the real Kenta Maeda?
There may be real reason for concern. The velocity is encouraging, and honestly, confusing, but everything else is fairly scary. It can be safely presumed Maeda’s ERA will drop below eight at some point this season, but getting it under 3.00 is not as much of a sure bet.
Friday’s start may loom large for Maeda as it pertains to his immediate future. Though, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts stopped short of saying the right-hander was pitching to remain in the rotation.
