The 2019 MLB Draft has officially arrived, and the two players most impacted by that aren’t high schoolers or college kids. That honor, instead, goes to free agents Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel.
They each declined the qualifying offer from their respective teams this past winter, then were seemingly frozen out during free agency. As teams have gotten smarter, they’ve realized how substantial the type of sacrifice is losing a draft pick to sign someone who rejected a qualifying offer.
With teams no longer required to forfeit a draft pick to sign Kimbrel or Keuchel, the general consensus is they will soon sign. So, are the Dodgers going to be players?
We can start with the easy one: Keuchel. As it stands, the Dodgers’ starting rotation has been absolutely dominant. It boasts the best pitcher in baseball, plus Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, Rich Hill and Kenta Maeda.
And that doesn’t even get into their depth (Julio Urias, Ross Stripling, etc.). Simply put: the Dodgers aren’t in need of a starter.
When it comes to the bullpen, however? Safe to say there is a glaring need.
While fans are used to having an elite bullpen, 2019 has been a shock to the system as they’ve been introduced to a group of relief pitchers that seems to lack any semblance of consistency. Some nights they’re lights out. Other nights it’s a rollercoaster.
Which brings us to Kimbrel. At 31, Kimbrel remains one of the best bullpen arms in baseball, having made 57-plus appearances in eight consecutive seasons, with a combined 332 saves over that time. Over that stretch, his ERA has gone above 3.00 just one time.
On paper, the fit makes too much sense. The Dodgers are still desperate for a World Series, their bullpen has been imperfect in their last two postseason runs (and seems worse than ever at the moment), and now there’s an elite reliever out there that wouldn’t cost them a haul full of prospects.
What’s the catch?
For one, the Dodgers have a shade under $10 million to spend and still remain below the luxury tax threshold. Kimbrel, figures to receive a contract in the ballpark of double that number.
This doesn’t make it impossible, just a bit more unlikely.
Here’s where you can bury your head in the sand before realizing that if the Dodgers hadn’t signed the disastrous Joe Kelly, they’d have ample space to pursue Kimbrel.
Honestly, this is primary the reason you won’t see the Dodgers on anyone’s prediction list for the right-handed closer. Instead, because of the financial limitations, the Dodgers will likely be resigned to pursuing upgrades via the trade market.
Another hurdle to potentially signing Kimbrel is Kenley Jansen making it clear he views himself as the established closer. Kimbrel has yet to express a willingness to accept a setup role.
If you’re looking for one other ray of hope, maybe the Dodgers can get something out of prospects like Tony Gonsolin or Dennis Santana at the end of the season.
The sad reality is that — for the time being — the bullpen is what it is it appears. There might be an upgrade coming in the next month, but it’s unlikely to be a move without some prospect cost — and it’s unlikely to be a guy as elite as Kimbrel.
In some ways this might be OK. The Dodgers won’t need to lock themselves into an aging Kimbrel for a number of years, but it’s difficult to imagine that’s really the driving thought-process unfortunately.
