The Los Angeles Dodgers had just a 0.5% win probability as they entered the ninth inning, trailing the Colorado Rockies by five runs on Tuesday.
But don’t tell that to the Dodgers as they overcame all odds and rallied their way to an 11-9 victory, thanks to a seven-run ninth inning.
Coming back from a five-run deficit in just one inning takes a complete team effort, and a little luck.
The Dodgers had both going for them, and Dodgers manager Dave Roberts noted his club never gave up and continued to fight until the final out, via Dennis Georgatos of the Southern California News Group:
“It was quality of at-bat up and down the lineup,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said. “Jason was ready when called upon. Teo, he keeps coming up with big hits. That inning, certainly, the results showed the fight, the compete.”
The inning started with a walk from Andy Pages, and Miguel Rojas followed with a single. Kiké Hernández struck out, but Miguel Vargas worked a great at-bat to draw a walk, loading the bases.
With Chris Taylor set to hit against a right-hander, Dave Roberts called on Jason Heyward to pinch-hit, still trailing by five. Heyward took a six-pitch at-bat, and the final result was a grand slam home run down the right field line:
“I wasn’t sure if that was going to stay fair or not,” Heyward said. “It’s Colorado, so maybe that helped straighten it out a little bit. But given that it was a slider and in the location it was, it definitely was a tough pitch to keep fair. I was like, ‘Come on, come on, squeak in, squeak in, and it hit off the pole,’ and I said, ‘all right, we’re good.’ I honestly feel like we got rewarded for our process” in the ninth.
The Dodgers had life, now trailing by just one run with the top of their lineup coming up. Their win probability was up to 8.7%, still slim odds, but a chance, nonetheless:
“When Jason hit the grand slam, and turned the lineup up to Ohtani, you knew something was going to happen,” Hernandez said. “It was not going to go and end like that.”
Shohei Ohtani singled to left field, increasing the Dodgers’ win probability to 16.9%. The odds were still stacked against them, but rising.
That was until Will Smith struck out looking at a pitch down the middle after the umpire declined to grant him a timeout. That decreased the Dodgers’ win probability to just 7.8%.
A wild pitch allowed Ohtani to advance to second base, and at that point, the Dodgers decided to intentionally walk Freddie Freeman, giving them a 14% chance to win.
Teoscar Hernández was now at the plate and reached a 1-2 count before a controversial check swing was ruled in his favor. The Dodgers caught their lucky break, and Rockies manager Bud Black was ejected from the game for arguing it.
On the very next pitch, Teoscar Hernández swung, this time for real, and blasted a fastball over the right field fence to give the Dodgers an 11-9 lead. An increase of 77.6% to their win probability to take their odds from 0.5% at the start of the inning to 91.6%.
The ball was crushed, leaving the bat at 106.3 mph and traveling 423 feet as Hernández admired it out of the batter’s box:
“I knew as soon as I hit it,” Hernandez said. “It was great, especially because I put the team ahead.”
Alex Vesia started the ninth inning and recorded two outs before walking Nolan Jones. Evan Phillips then entered the game and struck out Hunter Goodman on five pitches.
Ballgame. An improbable comeback complete.
Dodgers benefit from vague MLB check swing rules
While Hernández’s check swing drew a ton of attention and criticism from the Rockies and on social media, all of that is based on opinion of what a swing is, and not facts based on MLB’s official rule book.
MLB’s rules are incredibly vague regarding what a swing is. The only definition is what an umpire rules is an attempt to strike the ball, or offer at a pitch.
It is a common misconception that breaking the plane of the plate or breaking the wrists have anything to do with what constitutes as a swing. Neither of those things are endorsed by the league.
MLB’s rule book fully leaves it up to the umpire at that moment to decide what they believe is a swing, and that is something the league should look into fixing.
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