It’s almost July, and the Los Angeles Dodgers started Monday eight games back of the rival San Francisco Giants for first place in the National League West. And, well, if you’ve read any message boards, you’d think the sky was falling.
Sure, eight games out of first is plenty back, but one number doesn’t tell the whole story. For starters, the Dodgers are currently a playoff team and five six games over .500 — leaving them on pace to win 88 games this season (or four more than the second-place Giants won last season).
But honestly, this isn’t about what this year’s Dodgers would do over the course of 162 games at their current rate of play. But rather, what this group of Dodgers is capable of over the remaining 85, perhaps 86, games.
So, let’s start with the hitters. Entering the series finale against the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Dodger offense ranks 19th in the Majors in runs scored (319), 24th in on-base percentage (.307) and 28th in slugging (.385).
Obviously, it doesn’t take an expert to understand those numbers aren’t any good. On the flip side, there is room for hope.
To start with, the Dodgers are dead last in BABIP (.273) — meaning that every time a baseball is put into play, somehow the Dodgers are getting hits at a slower rate than any other team in baseball.
The word “somehow” is used, because it’s widely believed that having a higher or lower BABIP is simply a product of luck (or lack thereof). As such, that makes the Dodgers the unluckiest group of hitters in the Majors.
But even beyond statistics and luck, it’s difficult to believe that this collection of hitters will continue to struggle so uniformly and consistently. A lineup that features Corey Seager, Yasiel Puig, Joc Pederson, Adrian Gonzalez, Justin Turner, Trayce Thompson, Chase Utley and Yasmani Grandal (not to mention Howie Kendrick, Kiké Hernandez and Scott Van Slyke off the bench) shouldn’t be anywhere near the bottom half of the league offensively.
The question then, is whether you’re willing to assume the season-long slump continues. On the pitching side, the story is a bit different.
While the hitters can point to bad luck as the source of their woes, it’s injuries that have ravaged the Dodgers’ pitching staff (and then ravaged it again). This tweet sums the situation up perfectly:
Kershaw✅
Kazmir✅
Ryu❌
Maeda✅
McCarthy❌
Anderson❌
Wood❌
Bolsinger❌
Stripling❌
Beachey❌
Montas❌
Urias✅
De Leon❌
Lee✈️
Tepesch✅— Zesty Chicken Puppet (@chicken__puppet) June 23, 2016
While some will respond to this list by pointing out the lack of elite talent shown, my question is simple: Even if these pitchers are mediocre, are you willing to argue that ‘mediocre’ isn’t a dramatic upgrade over what Dave Roberts has been forced to trot out there?
Sure, Brett Anderson won’t be winning any Cy Young Awards in his career, but compared to Nick Tepesch, he might as well be a Hall of Famer. (And the same goes for Brandon McCarhty, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Alex Wood).
Throw any of those four into the rotation and the club becomes dramatically better — and they’re already on pace to win 88 games. With an improved rotation, that number quickly moves up into the low 90s. And with some better luck offensively, it could climb even higher.
To be clear, there’s no guarantee that the hitters turn things around this decade, or the starting pitchers all return in a timely manner. But the point remains: the question worth asking isn’t whether the June 2016 Dodgers are World Series material, but rather, whether we honestly believe that what we’re seeing today is the best this team has to offer.
For me, that answer is that it’s not even close.
